SPOTTING COGNITIVE DISSONANCE IN THE WILD
“who got the new information? who's patching their reality? who lacks analytical skills?”
The Lesson
Cognitive dissonance is when someone tries to patch together new information with what they already believe, and it can't fit. How do you spot it? Long-term: does their worldview predict accurately? Short-term: look for the trigger. What new information forced them to create a weird explanation? The person who received new information and had to patch it is likely in dissonance. Also check talent stacks. Someone with analytical/statistical skills is more likely to have an accurate reality model than someone without, regardless of their other talents.
Real-World Example
A founder pitches two investors. Both reject. Investor A says 'the market timing is off'-generic, no trigger, might be right. Investor B says 'your product is fine but I'm worried about your personality fit with the market'-weird, specific, triggered by something. Investor B may have received information (maybe a reference check) that conflicted with their initial impression. They're patching. Investor A might just be wrong about timing. The founder follows up with Investor B to find the real objection.
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