USING SELFISHNESS TO PREDICT
“assume selfishness. you will rarely be wrong.”
The Lesson
The Supreme Court suddenly started issuing unanimous 9-0 decisions right when Democrats talked about packing the court. Coincidence? Jonathan Turley thinks it's a message: 'We agree on things-don't change our numbers.' Of course they'd resist expansion-if you're one of nine special people, you don't want to become one of sixteen. Even Supreme Court justices act selfishly, even if they rationalize it as principle. To predict the future, look at people's self-interest. Assume everyone is selfish. You will rarely be wrong.
Real-World Example
A founder wonders if their lead investor will support a bridge round. Instead of asking 'will they do the right thing?', ask: 'what's in their interest?' If they're doubling down, their shares go up. They'll likely support it. If they're writing it off, more money is throwing good after bad. They'll resist. Self-interest predicts the answer before you even ask.
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